The European Union's Earth observation programme Copernicus follows up SST (Surface Sea Temperature) trend showing how it rises continuously during last decades.
Figure after ECMWF (https://www.ecmwf.int)
Today, anomalies in front of Iberian Mediterranean basin reach 2.5 or 3 ºC above normal, and even higher values are expected for coming days.
A study presented by us in Johannesburg, 2016, titled "NEW METHODOLOGY FOR A ROBUST ESTIMATION OF LARGE RETURN PERIOD FLOODS FOR DAM SPILLWAYS DESIGN", based on previous research presented in Vienna 2007, contained some considerations for estimating Climate Change effects of heavy storms and floods in the Mediterranean Region, based in the changes of some parameters as temperature in high level of the atmosphere or the surface sea temperature during the fall among other.
Under a hypothesis of 3ºC rise in SST the study predicted, maintaining the rest of factors, a 30% higher in rainfall amount and 40% of runoff, leading to a very much risky expected floods
Of course that some other circumstances should be present for heavy storm events and also SST could be mitigated. Anyway, under current status, a risky season is more probable than other colder summers.
Long term probabilities are more robust estimated than circumstantial situations as present one but a clue is done for being aware.
